Weekly Report January 28 to Febraury 4, 2026

Anticipated Mobilizations and Public Order Risks as CPT Mandate Nears Its End

As the mandate of the Transitional Presidential Council approaches its scheduled conclusion on February 7, 2026, the political and security environment in Haiti remains highly fluid. A convergence of internal political fractures, external diplomatic pressure, armed group signaling, and pending judicial developments is increasing the risk of public disorder in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area, including Pétion-Ville. While no single, unified mobilization plan has been formally announced, multiple actors retain the capacity to mobilize supporters on short notice, raising the likelihood of demonstrations, road disruptions, and localized violence.

The political context is marked by growing uncertainty surrounding the post-February 7 transition. Certain members of the CPT have signaled intentions to mobilize political constituencies in support of alternative transitional arrangements, while opposition figures, both within and outside institutional frameworks, have publicly called for a change in government. Some have proposed a transition period of up to two years. These dynamics are occurring despite international warnings, which so far appear to have had limited deterrent effect.

External pressure has added another layer of complexity. The United States has publicly stated that the CPT should be dissolved by February 7, while simultaneously signaling support for Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé remaining in office. This position has reinforced internal divisions, particularly as reporting indicates that elements within the CPT have voted to move against the Prime Minister and have discussed plans to replace him within a defined timeframe. The result is the emergence of competing political narratives, each with the potential to translate into street-level mobilization as the deadline approaches.

At the international level, the United Nations Security Council has criticized the lack of progress in the political transition and the continued deterioration of security conditions, even as it extended the UN political mission through January 31, 2027. This has strengthened the public perception that the transition has failed to deliver tangible results, a narrative that may further energize protests around the symbolic February 7 date.

Locally, an alternative institutional scenario is also being discussed. Political actors, including figures associated with former senator Jean-Renel Sénatus, have promoted the idea that the President of the Court of Cassation, Judge Jean Joseph Lebrun, could assume a provisional presidency after February 7. A commission has reportedly been formed to pursue this option and to seek engagement with CPT leadership and the Prime Minister. This parallel succession storyline introduces additional fault lines and could trigger demonstrations both in support of and in opposition to such a move.

Armed and non-state actors continue to shape the risk environment. The leader of the Carrefour armed group, Krisla Chery, has publicly expressed support for the CPT in the name of national sovereignty, without clarifying what form that support might take. This statement does not formally commit the broader Viv Ansanm network, whose current position remains unclear. Guy Philippe has again raised the possibility of non-peaceful mobilization, claiming a support base that includes individuals with police, military, and BSAP backgrounds. Similar statements over the past two years have not translated into sustained operational impact, and his current capacity appears limited unless new alliances have been formed. Bab, a well-known political activist, has publicly aligned himself with Guy Philippe. The role of neighborhood vigilante brigades and former armed bases in the capital will likely depend on their affiliations and the logistical or financial backing provided by political sponsors.

Judicial developments remain a potential catalyst for unrest. The scheduled judicial summons of former Director General of the Haitian National Police Rameau Normil during the first week of February could prompt protests or disruptive actions if supporters interpret the proceedings as politically motivated. Such reactions would likely take the form of short-notice roadblocks or localized demonstrations.

Based on prior mobilization patterns, several types of disruption are assessed as plausible in the coming days. These include road blockages using burning tires, isolated gunfire in select neighborhoods, early-morning disruptions, and surprise actions during daytime hours. Demonstrations or movement disruptions are most likely along major corridors leading toward Delmas 60 and Pétion-Ville. The ongoing debate between CPT dissolution and alternative transitional arrangements increases the likelihood of overlapping gatherings and route interdictions rather than a single, centralized march.

Recent activity suggests that certain areas warrant heightened vigilance. These include Girardot, Peguyville, Juvenat, Bas Pèlerin, the former Pétion-Ville cemetery area, and Bourdon. Movement near the Villa d’Accueil, the official guest residence, should be avoided. A resurgence of kidnapping activity is also possible, as abductions continue to be used as a destabilization tactic.

The Haitian National Police are expected to maintain a full operational posture throughout this period. While this deployment may deter large-scale unrest, it is unlikely to prevent localized incidents, temporary access restrictions, or short-duration disruptions.

Overall, the scale and intensity of potential unrest cannot be precisely predicted. Despite indications that some anti–Prime Minister actors may be weakened, the presence of multiple political, armed, and mobilizable actors across the capital and Pétion-Ville presents a sustained risk. As February 7 approaches, short-notice mobilizations driven by competing political narratives and reactive responses to judicial developments remain the most likely threat to public order.

United Nations Confirms Progress Toward Deployment of Anti-Gang Force in Haiti

During a United Nations Security Council meeting on January 29, 2026, the United Nations confirmed that preparations to support the international force tasked with combating gangs in Haiti are advancing according to schedule. UN officials stated that the establishment of a dedicated support office for Haiti is a central pillar of this effort, providing operational and logistical assistance to the Gang Suppression Force.

As part of these preparations, a helicopter has already been delivered to Port-au-Prince to strengthen transport and operational capabilities. Additional equipment is being shipped from Italy and the Middle East, including matériel redeployed from a former UN mission to maximize existing resources.

The UN indicated that preparatory work covers infrastructure, personnel, and logistics. Full support to the Gang Suppression Force is expected by the end of March 2026, with initial operational services available as early as February for the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti.

In parallel, a regional support office has been opened in Santo Domingo to manage administrative, financial, and logistical functions and to facilitate medical evacuations if required, as the international support framework for Haiti continues to be put in place.

U.S. Naval and Coast Guard Deployment off Port-au-Prince Signals Commitment Amid Political Uncertainty

American warships, the USS Stockdale, USCGC Stone, and USCGC Diligence, have entered the Bay of Port-au-Prince. In a statement issued on February 3, 2026, the U.S. Embassy in Haiti confirmed that the deployment was carried out at the direction of the U.S. Secretary of War as part of Operation Southern Spear. The embassy described the maritime presence as a demonstration of Washington’s unwavering commitment to Haiti’s security, stability, and long-term prospects.

According to the statement, the U.S. Navy and the U.S. Coast Guard are reinforcing their partnership and support to help promote a safer and more prosperous Haiti. The deployment follows testimony delivered on January 28 by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who stated that the Trump administration was prepared to adopt a more robust military posture to confront gangs and transnational criminal organizations operating in Haiti and the broader Caribbean.

U.S. officials have identified armed gangs, some reportedly possessing weapons comparable to those used by state forces, as a serious threat to regional stability and U.S. national security. Washington maintains that these groups contribute to irregular migration, narcotics trafficking, and broader destabilization.

The arrival of the vessels comes just days before the February 7 expiration of the mandate of Haiti’s Transitional Presidential Council, at a time of continued political uncertainty and the absence of a clearly defined transition framework.

The positioning of U.S. Navy and Coast Guard vessels off Port-au-Prince sends a strong diplomatic and military signal, underscoring U.S. concern over deteriorating security conditions and demonstrating readiness to support partners. However, analysts note that a naval presence alone, without forces deployed ashore, clearly defined mission objectives, or articulated rules of engagement, is unlikely to produce immediate or measurable changes on the ground. Haitians have seen similar deployments in the past, and if conditions remain unchanged and armed groups continue to operate, such measures risk being perceived as symbolic rather than transformative.

Heavy Gunfire and Ongoing Police Operations Reported in Port-au-Prince and Croix-des-Bouquets

Security conditions have remained volatile in Port-au-Prince and surrounding communes since late January 2026, as the Haitian National Police continue operations against armed groups. Heavy gunfire has been reported in several areas, prompting a security alert from the U.S. Embassy.

On January 31, the U.S. Embassy in Port-au-Prince advised U.S. citizens of active security operations north and south of the embassy compound and in Croix-des-Bouquets. Movements by U.S. government personnel were temporarily suspended, and the embassy urged U.S. citizens to avoid affected areas while remaining open for emergency services only.

These developments coincided with expanded PNH operations to restore road access and reinforce security along key corridors controlled by armed groups affiliated with the Viv Ansanm coalition. Operations began early on January 31 with efforts to clear the road linking the Tabarre bridge to Carrefour Marassa. Armored vehicles and heavy equipment were used to remove barricades and repair trenches dug by gangs to block traffic.

During these operations, eight suspected gang members were fatally wounded, and two firearms, including an M16-type rifle and a Kalashnikov-style rifle, were seized. Sources reported that Filémon, described as the principal gang leader operating in the Carrefour Marassa area, died in hospital following injuries sustained during a police operation targeting the group’s base. The group’s second-in-command, Zòtolon, was also reported killed.

PNH operations have continued in Croix-des-Bouquets, an area long associated with the 400 Mawozo gang. Police reported additional engagements and the seizure of high-caliber weapons, including AK-47 and HK G3 rifles, as part of ongoing efforts to secure the area.

The U.S. Department of State maintains a Level 4 “Do Not Travel” advisory for Haiti. While the PNH reports tactical gains, including reopened roads, weapons seizures, and the killing of gang leaders, the continuation of gunfire and operations underscores persistent instability in the capital and surrounding areas.

MSF Report Documents Sharp Rise in Sexual Violence Used as a Tool of Terror in Port-au-Prince

A January 2026 report by Médecins Sans Frontières warns that sexual violence in Port-au-Prince has escalated dramatically since 2021 and is now being used systematically to terrorize the population. The report, based on a decade of medical data and survivor testimonies collected at the Pran Men’m clinic, describes a crisis unfolding amid collapsing health services, widespread displacement, and worsening living conditions. Since its opening in 2015, the clinic has provided medical and psychosocial care to nearly 17,000 survivors, 98 percent of whom are women and girls.

MSF reports that the number of survivors treated has nearly tripled since 2021, rising from an average of 95 admissions per month to more than 250 per month in 2025. Survivors span all age groups, with many having been displaced by armed violence, increasing their vulnerability. Nearly one in five patients reported being assaulted multiple times. Since 2022, 57 percent of survivors stated they were attacked by members of armed groups, often in gang assaults, with more than one hundred survivors reporting attacks involving ten or more perpetrators.

The report also highlights critical gaps in survivor support. Many victims are unable to access shelters, financial assistance, or timely medical care due to insecurity, stigma, cost, and lack of information. Since 2022, only one-third of survivors reached the clinic within three days of an assault, the critical window to prevent HIV transmission, and 59 percent arrived too late to prevent unwanted pregnancy. MSF calls for increased and sustained funding to ensure free, comprehensive medical and psychosocial care, and for clear recognition that sexual violence is being deliberately used by armed groups to control and subjugate women and girls.

UN Report Records Nearly 6,000 Deaths in Haiti in 2025 Amid Escalating Insecurity

According to a new report from the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti, insecurity in Haiti resulted in more than 5,900 deaths and nearly 2,700 injuries over the course of 2025. During the fourth quarter alone, from October to December, at least 1,523 people were killed and 806 others injured, reflecting the continued severity of violence across the country.

The report notes that armed gangs were largely unable to expand their territorial control within the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area, primarily due to sustained law enforcement operations. Despite this, gangs operating in areas under their control continued to commit serious human rights abuses, including targeted killings, kidnappings, extortion, destruction of property, and the trafficking of children for exploitation and involvement in criminal activities. In rural areas surrounding the capital, particularly in the Artibonite and Centre departments, gangs carried out indiscriminate attacks on multiple localities in an effort to consolidate or expand control, targeting farmers and agricultural assets and driving further displacement and humanitarian needs.

BINUH estimates that approximately 6 percent of killings and injuries were linked to self-defense groups and members of the population involved in the “Bwa Kalé” movement, which targets suspected gang members and collaborators. More than 62 percent of deaths and injuries during the fourth quarter occurred during law enforcement operations, some of which were supported by a foreign private military company employing explosive drones and helicopter strikes. At least 32 civilians were killed or injured by these air operations, including two young girls. The UN also documented an expansion of these operations beyond Port-au-Prince and Kenscoff to new areas such as Cabaret and Pétion-Ville, alongside continued allegations of summary executions involving police personnel.

The report further indicates that violence has also affected security forces themselves. During the fourth quarter of 2025, three police officers were killed and five others wounded, while one member of the FRG was injured, underscoring the high-risk environment in which law enforcement continues to operate.

Haitian Government Reiterates Commitment to Advancing the Electoral Process

The Haitian government reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the ongoing electoral process during the 35th edition of Mardis de la Nation, held on February 3, 2026, at the Prime Minister’s Office in Port-au-Prince. Speaking to the press, the Minister Delegate for Electoral and Constitutional Affairs, Joseph André Gracien Jean, outlined the main actions undertaken by the state to advance electoral and constitutional preparations.

The minister highlighted the electoral decree and calendar, describing them as incorporating key innovations, including the decentralization of the vote tabulation center and measures aimed at increasing women’s participation in the electoral process. He also announced the signing of a cooperation agreement between the Conseil électoral provisoire and Mexico’s Instituto Nacional Electoral, providing for technical assistance in areas such as training of electoral staff, management and updating of the voter registry, and the use of technological solutions to organize elections in a crisis context.

On the political and financial fronts, Joseph André Gracien Jean reported that a capacity-building program for political parties, led by the Ministry of Justice and Public Security, has trained 1,770 members from 240 political structures. He also stated that the registration of political parties and the updating of the electoral registry are ongoing. In financial terms, the government mobilized USD 82.97 million in 2025 to support the electoral process, with a remaining balance of USD 41.6 million currently managed by a steering committee comprising the president of the CEP, the Minister of Planning, and a representative of the United Nations Development Programme. Authorities maintain that elections remain a priority and that efforts are underway to ensure the conditions for a credible, inclusive, and transparent vote.

Aircraft Makes Emergency Landing Near Les Cayes, Passengers Hospitalized

An aircraft registered N45SR, operated by Bolt, made a forced landing on Tuesday, February 3, 2026, in the locality of Demion, near Antoine Simon International Airport in Les Cayes. No fatalities were reported, according to Haiti’s Office National de l’Aviation Civile (OFNAC).

The aircraft was en route from Port-au-Prince to Les Cayes when the incident occurred for reasons that have not yet been specified by aviation authorities. Six passengers were on board at the time of the forced landing.

In an official press release, OFNAC confirmed that the incident occurred in the southern zone of Les Cayes. Following notification, OFNAC, in coordination with Hero Rescue and under the leadership of its Director General, Reginald Guignard, immediately deployed a team of inspectors and technical personnel to conduct initial verifications and collect additional information.

According to OFNAC, no loss of life or collateral damage was recorded. With the support of the Haitian National Police (PNH) and the National Airport Authority (AAN), all passengers were evacuated and transported to a medical facility for evaluation and follow-up care. The severity of any injuries has not been officially disclosed.

OFNAC stated that all necessary measures have been taken to ensure continued monitoring of the situation in accordance with national and international aviation safety regulations. A formal investigation has been opened to determine the exact circumstances of the incident. Additional information will be released once the investigation and technical assessments are completed.

Promises on Road Reopenings Revisited as Officials Step Back from Earlier Commitments

In 2025, presidential adviser Leslie Voltaire publicly announced the imminent reopening of a national roadway to traffic. Shortly thereafter, the Secretary of State for Public Security, Mario Andrésol, stated that before February 7 a major road corridor previously used by the public would be cleared and reopened.

The announcements generated mixed reactions. Some members of the public viewed them as a sign of progress, while others expressed skepticism and waited to see whether the commitments would be followed by concrete action.

On February 3, 2026, as the end of his mandate approached, Leslie Voltaire addressed questions from the press regarding the Martissant road segment, which remains under the control of armed groups. He stated that responsibility for reopening National Road No. 2 rests with the Haitian National Police, noting that operational decisions fall under law enforcement authority.

Mario Andrésol later addressed the issue during the 35th edition of “Mardis de la Nation.” He revisited his late-December 2025 statement regarding the reopening of a national road before February 7, indicating that the plan had been revised. He cited adjustments by police authorities in response to security concerns and potential political instability. He added that security forces continue efforts aimed at improving conditions and allowing residents to resume daily activities.

These statements marked a shift from earlier public commitments. They come amid persistent security challenges in the capital, including ongoing gang activity, attacks on infrastructure, and widespread displacement. More than one million people are estimated to have been forced from their homes, many living in precarious conditions.

As the current political transition approaches its deadline, uncertainty remains regarding improvements to security and mobility. Public reaction reflects ongoing frustration over unmet expectations, as authorities prepare to leave office following months of promises that have yet to translate into visible change on the ground.

United States Calls for Dissolution of Haiti’s Transitional Presidential Council by February 7 and Refocuses UN Mandate

During a January 29 meeting of the United Nations Security Council, the United States reaffirmed its support for Haiti’s stabilization while calling for the dissolution of the Transitional Presidential Council (CPT) by February 7, 2026. Speaking before the Council, U.S. Ambassador Jennifer Locetta emphasized that the democratic transition must proceed without interference from corrupt actors and welcomed the unanimous adoption of a new resolution on Haiti, co-sponsored with Panama.

Washington underscored the importance of strong and consistent leadership in addressing the country’s security crisis, particularly the threat posed by armed gangs. U.S. officials described the continued leadership of Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé as integral to stabilization efforts, arguing that restoring public order requires sustained authority backed by popular support.

The United States also signaled growing pressure to accelerate Haiti’s transition toward elected institutions. Quoting Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Ambassador Locetta stated that the CPT must be dissolved within the stated deadline, warning that its continuation risks undermining the credibility of the transition and enabling opportunistic political influence. The U.S. position reflects concern that prolonged transitional arrangements are contributing to institutional paralysis.

In parallel, Washington called for a rationalization of the United Nations’ role in Haiti, arguing that the mandate of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) has become overly broad. The United States proposed refocusing BINUH’s priorities on electoral support, disarmament and reintegration initiatives, and monitoring and reporting, while stressing the need for more efficient and accountable use of international financial resources.

Bodies of Haitian Women Discovered Along Haiti–Dominican Republic Border, Cross-Border Investigation Underway

Authorities in the Dominican Republic have confirmed the discovery of the bodies of at least four Haitian women along the southern border separating Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The bodies were found at multiple locations in the border zone, with officials confirming that only one was recovered on Dominican territory, while the others were located on the Haitian side.

Dominican police spokesperson Diego Pesqueira stated that Dominican authorities have opened an investigation limited to the case discovered within their jurisdiction, in accordance with legal and territorial constraints. Haitian authorities are expected to handle the remaining cases found on Haitian soil.

Preliminary findings indicate that the victims were likely killed before being thrown into a river, with water currents carrying the bodies to the areas where they were later recovered. Investigators have not yet publicly identified a motive or linked the killings to a specific criminal group.

As part of the investigation, Dominican security forces detained a Haitian man in the Elías Piña border area who was suspected of having possible links to the case. The individual denied any involvement and was subsequently transferred to the Police Nationale d’Haïti to continue judicial proceedings.

Local and regional media reports note that the circumstances of the killings are particularly alarming, as decapitation is uncommon in homicide cases along the border, even amid persistent insecurity, irregular migration, and criminal activity in the area. Authorities on both sides of the border have not confirmed whether the killings are connected to organized crime, trafficking networks, or other forms of cross-border violence.

The discovery has heightened concerns over security along the Haiti–Dominican Republic border, an area already under strain from migration pressures, criminal activity, and limited law enforcement coordination. Investigations remain ongoing, and officials have indicated that additional information will be released as it becomes available.